7.10 pm: First takeaway from exit poll - BJP will be the biggest party in both Haryana, Maharashtra
So the first clear takeaway from all the exit polls so far, is that the BJP will form the government in both Maharashtra and Haryana.
In Haryana, it looks as though the party may well be able to form the government on its own, but in Maharashtra it looks as though
7.00 pm: Chanakya poll predicts outright majority for BJP in Haryana
The Chanakya exit poll has better news for the BJP in Haryana, giving the party an outright majority in the state. This poll is a best case scenario for the party, given that everyone else is predicting a much closer fight in the state.
Here are the Chanakya numbers for Haryana:
BJP: 52 Seats, INLD+: 23 Seats, Congress: 10 Seats
The ABP-Nielsen numbers are also in for the state, giving the party an outright majority. However these are for exit poll numbers based on data gathered at 3pm. They are as follows:
BJP--46, Congress--10, INLD--29, HJC--2, Others--3
6.45 pm: BJP will win 37 seats in Haryana, INLD close behind
The Times Now C-voter poll has predicted 37 seats for the BJP in Haryana with the INLD close behind with 28.
This again is short of the 45 needed for an absolute majority in the state.
What this means according to political analysts on Times Now, is that the BJP strategy of not having a CM candidate and projecting Modi instead has worked for them in the state.
6.31 pm: BJP will be largest party in Maharashtra but no outright majority
The BJP has done extremely well in Maharashtra to become the largest party, but will fall short of an outright majority, according two of the exit polls that have come out so far.
ABP Nielsen has predicted the following seats for Maharashtra:
BJP--127, Sena--77, Congress-40, NCP-34, MNS-5, others-5
Times Now - C-voter has predicted as following:
BJP 129 seats, Shiv Sena 56, Congress 43, NCP 36 seats, and 12 apiece for the MNS and Others.
India news-Axis has made the following projection:
BJP:103; Sena: 88; Cong 45; NCP: 35 and MNS 3
The magic number is 144.
Although the number of seats given to the BJP vary from poll to poll, the consensus seems to be that the BJP and Shiv Sena will be the two largest parties this election.
Does this mean that the BJP will have to swallow the 'insults' heaped upon it by the Shiv Sena and re-approach them for a post poll alliance? Given that the NDA alliance at the centre is still intact this could well be the case.
The question will probably be, what will the Shiv Sena do? Will they forgive the 'back stabbing' BJP and kiss and make up? Expect lots of back and forth.
According to Mani Shankar Aiyar on Headlines Today:
"What we need to think of right now is if the BJP is not able to form a government of its own, then what are the chances of their potential allies forming a government and what kind of a government will it be, with Uddhav Thackeray abusing everyone?"
6.10 pm: NCP says it will win 68 seats in Maharashtra
Ahead of the actual exit poll results party representatives are taking a stab at their own exit polls. Of course one can hardly expect psephologist level analysis given the obvious partisanship.
Where is Yogendra Yadav when you want him?
On ABP news, the NCP has predicted that it will win 68 seats in Maharashtra, while BJP spokesman MJ Akbar has said that the party will not win half the seats they won last time.
On Times Now, we are seeing a pitched fight between the BJP and Shiv Sena, in the wake of a scathing editorial in the Shiv Sena mouthpiece Saamana, which the BJP has called an 'insult'. The Shiv Sena for its part has said that at least they didn't 'backstab' anyone.
On Headlines Today, the Congress' Mani Shankar Aiyar has said that the Modi wave is over while the BJP laughs derisively.
Huge fun folks. But now lets see what the poll pundits have to say.
6.00 pm: Voting ends in Haryana, Maharashtra - now all parties can do is wait
Voting is now over in both Maharashtra and Haryana and the last few voters are in line to cast their votes.
Will a last minute push by all political parties in Maharashtra see increased voter turnout? Don't be surprised if that proves to be the case.
The election commission has clearly said that projections cannot be made until half an hour after polling ends. This means that the first projections can only be made post 6.30 pm.
5.10 pm: Poor voter turnout may play spoiler with pre-poll predictions
People queueing up to vote in Maharashtra: PTI
Maharashtra's voter turn out has been around 39 precent, but officials are still hoping that voting will pick up in the last hour of voting. At this point, we are seeing a lot more analysis of actual turnout rather than any numbers on exit polls.
In Maharashtra, apparently the low turnout is giving all the parties massive headaches. It could also completely turn pre poll predictions on its head.
According to Firstpost reporter Vishwas Waghmode:
"Following the low voter turn out in Mumbai, political parties have hit the panic button and are resorting to all sort of measures to get the voters to polling booth. Political parties are even making vehicle arrangement for public to bring them to the polling booth."
The MNS is apparently making arrangements to transport people to voting booths, while the Shiv Sena has asked its cadre to go door to door and ask the people to vote. The BJP is reportedly depending on its RSS network to canvass votes in the slums of Dharavi.
But why is voter turnout so low?
Political analysts say it may well be election fatigue, given that the Lok Sabha elections concluded just four months ago. Furthermore
5.00 pm: Will Haryana, Maharashtra 'chale Modi ke saath?'
The voting for the hotly contested elections in Maharashtra and Haryana will end in an hour, and it now remains to be seen whether the exit polls will match up to the pre poll predictions that saw huge wins for the BJP in both Haryana and Maharashtra.
Both Headlines Today (India Today - Cicero)and ABP News (Nielsen) will be running exit polls from 5pm, while CNN-IBN will conduct a poll as of 9pm. Will these confirm the findings of the pre poll projections?
Here is a summary of what the pre-poll surveys say:
Maharashtra:
Another survey conducted by Zee along with Taleem, predicted 110 seats for the BJP and 52 for the Sena. The results, which have put the BJP in the lead, show that the party's plan to resuscitate the 'Modi wave' might be working. However, there is a rider - in the shape of the Shiv Sena.
Representational image: PTI
A report on TOI says, "The opinion poll done by Cicero for the India Today group predicted that the BJP would win between 121 and 145 seats or a range of 12 seats around the 133 mark. That would mean a gain of over 80 seats from the party's 2009 tally of 46. It also suggested its vote share would more than double from 14% five years ago to touch 30%."
On the other hand, the Congress and the NCP are on a serious decline if the opinion polls numbers are to be believed. Whereas 2009 Assembly polls' seat tally shows that the Congress dominated several regions in Maharashtra - Vidarbha (24 of 62 seats), Mumbai (18 of 60), Marathwada (18 of 46) - the NCP had its own share of seat glory in Western Maharashtra (20 of 58), Northern Maharashtra (13 of 47) and Konkan (5 of 15).
However,
the Cicero exit polls show that vote share of BJP has gone up dramatically, hinting at a sharp increase in the number of seats. Marathwada, a Congress stronghold has seen BJP's vote share rise to 40 percent in the predictions from the 14 percent it had in 2009. Northern Maharashtra, which last year's seat count shows, was a NCP stronghold has also seen a rise in the vote share for BJP. The part has been predicted to get 34 percent, up from the 13.4 percent last year.
In 2009, the BJP had just 11 percent of the votes in Mumbai region, the predictions show that it might be up to 23 percent this time around.
BJP needs 145 seats for an absolute majority, in order to make sure the party doesn't have to seek post-poll alliances. At this moment, the possibility of alliances seem bleak for the BJP unless the Sena decides to swallow a bitter pill, gives up its chief ministerial ambitions and walks back into a post-poll alliance.
While parties are making their own calculations, most psephologists have been wary of predicting results in the state's polls, implying that the parties' own math might go very wrong when the results are revealed. While all the parties have their strongholds, they have mostly acted together in the past few elections making it very difficult to predict votes.
Haryana:
The IndiaTV-C Voter poll tracker released last week predicted that the BJP will emerge with 33 seats as the single largest party.
Currently jailed Om Prakash Chautala's INLD is projected to win 28 seats while the Congress is expected to win only 16 of the 90 seats. The alliance of Haryana Janhit Congress-Haryana Jan Chetna Party may win about 9 seats, the survey states.
Another survey, this one conducted by Nielsen for ABP News, has predicted that the BJP will win 36 of the 90 setas, while the INLD could walk away with 33. The Congress is expected to win only 15 of the seats, while the HJC and Independents will win about three seats each.
But what came in for some form of relief for the Congress, was the choice of Bhupinder Singh Hooda as the most preferred Chief Minister.
Forty five percent of the respondents that took the ABP-Nielsen survey gave Hooda a ‘good’ or ‘very good’ as CM of the state. Moreover, 29 percent of the them prefered Hooda as a suitable chief minister followed by BJP's Capt. Abhimanyu Singh (14 percent) and Rao Inderjeet Singh (13 percent). Almost half of the respondents (43 percent)said their lives had improved over the last five years.
A survey conducted by local Haryana channel Total TV chose to play safe giving parties a winning range. According to their survey, BJP will win 32-37 seats, INLD 26-31 seats, the Congress will win 15-20 seats; HJC is projected to win 2 - 5 seats, while others and independents are expected to win between 2 to 5 seats.
